Bitcoin’s behavior is often an enigma – sometimes bullish, sometimes bearish. But one thing that professionals keep a close eye on is on-chain data. Sharp decline in large shareholder (LTH) Oxford could be a big warning: We may be close to the top of the market, says literary trust of Chemistry Plaza Glassnode.
This article sheds light on what this trend actually means, why it matters, and how investors should interpret these on-chain signals.
What Is Long-Term Holder Supply?
Before considering the implications, let’s define what long-term holder supply actually is.
Long-term holders are wallets that have held bitcoin for more than 155 days. These are generally seen as strong hands, which means they are less likely to sell during short-term market fluctuations.
Glassnode tracks the total amount of Bitcoin held by these wallets and refers to it as the LTH supply. Historically, these wallets increase their holdings during downturns and begin reducing them when the market heats up – just before the price peaks.
Glassnode’s Latest Insight: A Market Top Warning?
In May 2025, Glassnode’s latest report showed that long-term holder supply began to decline, a behavior that has historically been associated with Bitcoin market tops.
Why Does It Matter?
- Sales by LTHs often occur before the top: long-term holders usually distribute their coins to new participants near the price peak.
- Profit-taking signal: If savvy investors are selling BTC, it could mean that they think the current price is attractive enough to exit.
- Weak hands take over: As new investors buy in, the market becomes more volatile and the chances of a sell-off increase.
This trend does not always mean an immediate decline – but it often precedes a significant correction or marks the final stage of a bullish market.
Historical Context: Previous Market Tops and LTH Behavior
Let’s explore how long-term holder supply behaved during previous cycles:
1. 2017 Bull Market
LTH supply steadily declined as Bitcoin reached its $20,000 peak. New retail investors joined in, while experienced holders quietly exited.
2. 2021 Cycle
The same pattern was repeated again. Long-term holders sold off during the April and November highs. Their sell-off was preceded by a sharp correction of over 30%.
3. Now, in 2025
Glassnode’s data is also strangely similar. LTH supply has been slowly decreasing since BTC crossed $65,000. This could mean that experienced investors are now withdrawing money.
Transition Phase: Long-Term Holders to Short-Term Speculators
Bitcoin goes through phases of accumulation and distribution. There is a transition from long-term holders to short-term speculators:
- Increase volatility
- Create new support/resistance zones
- Lead to broader corrections when sentiment flips
As LTHs sell off and short-term holders buy, we often see a surge in trading volume, Google search trends and social media activity – all signs of speculative hype.
Key On-Chain Indicators Supporting the Trend
Glassnode also noted several supporting metrics:
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
When SOPR rises above 1.0, it means holders are selling at a profit. Currently, SOPR is climbing – which indicates profit taking.
Exchange Inflows
There has been an increased flow of BTC into exchanges. This usually happens when holders prepare to sell, often during a bullish environment.
Dormancy Metrics
Dormant coins are becoming active again, which often signals that old wallets are moving BTC – possibly to sell.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors in 2025
If you’re wondering what this means for you, here are some key points:
- Reassess risk: If LTHs are selling, consider whether the upside potential at current levels outweighs the downside risk.
- Watch volatility: Further price volatility is expected as short-term traders take control.
- Prepare for corrections: Market peaks do not always occur instantly, but historically, the behavior of the LTH is a reliable early signal.
Remember: This does not guarantee that an accident will not occur. But it does show that it is important to be careful.
How Should You Respond?
While Though we cannot predict the exact market movement, you can work with smart strategies:
Diversify Your Portfolio
Don’t bet only on Bitcoin at high levels. Consider balancing with stablecoins, Ethereum, or other blue-chip crypto assets.
Use Stop-Loss Orders
Lock in gains and limit downside risks, especially during volatile phases.
Stay Informed
Follow trusted on-chain analysts like Glassnode, Crypto Quant and Santiment. These insights are often more valuable than price charts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What does a decline in long-term holder supply mean for Bitcoin?
This usually signals that experienced investors are selling. It often signals that the market has reached a top or that a correction is about to come.
2. Should I sell my Bitcoin if long-term holders are selling?
Not necessarily. But it is wise to reevaluate your position, set a stop-loss, and avoid overexposure during high-risk phases.
3. How accurate is Glassnode’s on-chain data?
Glassnode is widely regarded as one of the most reliable on-chain analytics platforms. While no metric is foolproof, LTH supply trends have proven to be predictive in past cycles.
4. Can Bitcoin still go higher even if long-term holders are selling?
Yes, markets can remain irrational for longer than expected. Retail enthusiasm or macro factors (such as ETF flows) can push prices higher even during a sell-off.
5. How can I track LTH supply data myself?
You can sign up for Glass node (free and paid versions available) or use other analytics tools like Crypto Quant and Look in to Bitcoin.
Conclusion: Is the Bitcoin Market Topping Out?
Glassnode’s insights about Bitcoin’s dwindling long-term holder supply provide a powerful lens to view the current market. It’s not a guarantee of a crash – but it’s certainly not worth ignoring.
If history repeats—or even rhymes—then we may be nearing the end of the current bull cycle. Savvy investors will take this signal seriously, not with panic, but with caution and planning.
Stay ahead of the market by following reliable analysis and managing your crypto portfolio wisely. After all, understanding the data gives you a serious edge in the volatile world of Bitcoin.
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